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<title>文山州与楚雄州人口变化趋势对基础教育的影响分析报告</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/chart.js"></script>
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</style>
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</head>
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<body>
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<header>
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<h1>文山州与楚雄州人口变化趋势对基础教育的影响分析报告</h1>
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<p>云南省教育资源配置发展预测分析</p>
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</header>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>报告摘要</h2>
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<div class="summary">
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<p>本报告基于文山州与楚雄州2012-2022年人口变化数据及2035年预测数据，分析了两州人口变化趋势及其对基础教育资源配置的影响。报告显示，两州人口均呈现下降趋势，城乡人口结构发生显著变化，城镇人口增加而乡村人口减少。这种人口变化对基础教育资源配置提出了新的挑战，特别是在教职工需求、学校占地面积需求等方面都产生了直接影响。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>人口变化趋势分析</h2>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h3>文山州与楚雄州总人口变化趋势(2012-2035)</h3>
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<canvas id="populationTrendChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h3>文山州城乡人口变化趋势(2023-2035)</h3>
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<canvas id="wenshanUrbanRuralChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h3>楚雄州城乡人口变化趋势(2023-2035)</h3>
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<canvas id="chuxiongUrbanRuralChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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<p>从数据分析可以看出，文山州和楚雄州的人口均呈现下降趋势，但下降模式有所不同。文山州人口从2012年开始持续下降，年均增长率约为-2.04%，而楚雄州人口在2019年达到峰值后开始下降，2020年出现大幅下降。两州的城乡人口结构变化明显，城镇人口缓慢增长而乡村人口显著减少，这种变化对教育资源配置提出了新的要求。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>基础教育学生数量变化分析</h2>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h3>文山州各学段学生数量变化趋势(2022-2035)</h3>
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<canvas id="wenshanStudentTrendChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h3>楚雄州各学段学生数量变化趋势(2022-2035)</h3>
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<canvas id="chuxiongStudentTrendChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h3>2022年与2035年预测学生数量对比</h3>
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<canvas id="studentComparisonChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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<p>学生数量变化趋势与人口变化趋势一致，总体上呈现下降趋势。文山州各学段学生数量下降幅度较大，特别是小学和初中阶段；楚雄州下降幅度相对较小。城乡分布方面，城区学生数量略有增加或保持稳定，而乡村学生数量明显减少，这与城镇化进程密切相关。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>教育资源配置变化分析</h2>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h3>文山州教职工需求变化趋势(2023-2035)</h3>
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<canvas id="wenshanTeacherTrendChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h3>楚雄州教职工需求变化趋势(2023-2035)</h3>
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<canvas id="chuxiongTeacherTrendChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h3>两州学校占地面积需求变化对比(2023-2035)</h3>
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<canvas id="schoolAreaChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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<p>随着学生数量的减少，两州基础教育教职工需求总体呈下降趋势，但存在区域性、结构性、学科性短缺问题。学校占地面积需求也相应减少，但需要关注城乡分布变化带来的资源配置调整需求。特别是文山州城镇人口增加，可能需要在城区增加教育资源投入。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>结论与建议</h2>
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<div class="conclusion">
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<h3>主要结论</h3>
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<ul>
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<li>文山州和楚雄州人口均呈现下降趋势，但下降模式和速度有所不同</li>
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<li>城乡人口结构变化显著，城镇人口增加而乡村人口减少</li>
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<li>学生数量总体下降，乡村学生数量减少尤为明显</li>
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<li>教职工和学校占地面积需求相应减少，但存在结构性短缺问题</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>政策建议</h3>
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<ul>
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<li>根据人口变化趋势，动态调整教育资源配置，避免资源浪费</li>
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<li>关注城镇人口增加带来的教育资源压力，适当增加城区教育资源投入</li>
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<li>优化乡村教育资源布局，提高资源利用效率</li>
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<li>加强教师队伍建设，解决结构性短缺问题</li>
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<li>建立人口变化与教育资源联动调整机制，实现精准配置</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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// 楚雄州城乡人口变化趋势图
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const chuxiongUrbanRuralCtx = document.getElementById('chuxiongUrbanRuralChart').getContext('2d');
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// 文山州各学段学生数量变化趋势图
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const wenshanStudentTrendCtx = document.getElementById('wenshanStudentTrendChart').getContext('2d');
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const wenshanStudentTrendChart = new Chart(wenshanStudentTrendCtx, {
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|
|
data: [8.94, 8.5, 8.1, 7.86],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州各学段学生数量变化趋势(2022-2035)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '学生数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 楚雄州各学段学生数量变化趋势图
|
|
|
const chuxiongStudentTrendCtx = document.getElementById('chuxiongStudentTrendChart').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const chuxiongStudentTrendChart = new Chart(chuxiongStudentTrendCtx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '学前在园幼儿(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [7.85, 7.5, 7.2, 6.64],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '小学在校生(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [15.42, 14.8, 14.2, 13.12],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '初中在校生(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [7.89, 7.6, 7.3, 6.74],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '高中在校生(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [5.08, 4.8, 4.5, 4.34],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '楚雄州各学段学生数量变化趋势(2022-2035)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '学生数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 文山州与楚雄州学生数量对比图
|
|
|
const studentComparisonCtx = document.getElementById('studentComparisonChart').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const studentComparisonChart = new Chart(studentComparisonCtx, {
|
|
|
type: 'bar',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['学前教育', '小学教育', '初中教育', '高中教育'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州2022年(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [16.88, 36.45, 18.43, 8.94],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.7)',
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 1)',
|
|
|
borderWidth: 1
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2022年(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [7.85, 15.42, 7.89, 5.08],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.7)',
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 1)',
|
|
|
borderWidth: 1
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州2035年预测(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [14.83, 32.02, 16.2, 7.86],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.7)',
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
|
|
|
borderWidth: 1
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2035年预测(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [6.64, 13.12, 6.74, 4.34],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 0.7)',
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 1)',
|
|
|
borderWidth: 1
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州与楚雄州各学段学生数量对比'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: true,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '学生数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 文山州教职工需求变化趋势图
|
|
|
const wenshanTeacherTrendCtx = document.getElementById('wenshanTeacherTrendChart').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const wenshanTeacherTrendChart = new Chart(wenshanTeacherTrendCtx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2023', '2025', '2027', '2029', '2031', '2033', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '教职工需求(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [4.2, 4.1, 4.0, 3.9, 3.8, 3.7, 3.6],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.1)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州教职工需求变化趋势(2023-2035)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '教职工数(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 楚雄州教职工需求变化趋势图
|
|
|
const chuxiongTeacherTrendCtx = document.getElementById('chuxiongTeacherTrendChart').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const chuxiongTeacherTrendChart = new Chart(chuxiongTeacherTrendCtx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2023', '2025', '2027', '2029', '2031', '2033', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '教职工需求(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [2.79, 2.70, 2.60, 2.55, 2.52, 2.50, 2.49],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.1)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '楚雄州教职工需求变化趋势(2023-2035)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '教职工数(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 文山州与楚雄州学校占地面积需求对比图
|
|
|
const schoolAreaCtx = document.getElementById('schoolAreaChart').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const schoolAreaChart = new Chart(schoolAreaCtx, {
|
|
|
type: 'bar',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['学前教育', '小学教育', '初中教育', '高中教育'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州占地面积需求(万平方米)',
|
|
|
data: [450, 1200, 800, 600],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.7)',
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 1)',
|
|
|
borderWidth: 1
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州占地面积需求(万平方米)',
|
|
|
data: [280, 650, 420, 350],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.7)',
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 1)',
|
|
|
borderWidth: 1
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州与楚雄州学校占地面积需求对比'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: true,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '占地面积(万平方米)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
</script>
|
|
|
</body>
|
|
|
</html>
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '小学在校生(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [14.83, 14.2, 13.6, 13.12],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '初中在校生(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [7.61, 7.3, 7, 6.74],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '高中在校生(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [5.1, 4.8, 4.5, 4.34],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(153, 102, |
