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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<title>文山州与楚雄州人口变化趋势对基础教育的影响分析报告</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/chart.js"></script>
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padding: 15px;
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body>
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<header>
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<h1>文山州与楚雄州人口变化趋势对基础教育的影响分析报告</h1>
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<p>基于2012-2035年人口与教育资源配置预测数据</p>
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</header>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>报告摘要</h2>
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<p>本报告分析了文山州与楚雄州2012-2022年的人口变化趋势，并预测了2023-2035年的人口发展对基础教育资源配置的影响。数据显示，两州总人口均呈现下降趋势，城乡人口结构发生显著变化，城镇人口增加而乡村人口减少。这种人口变化对基础教育资源配置提出了新的挑战，特别是在教职工需求、学校占地面积和学生数量等方面。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>详细分析</h2>
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<h3>人口变化趋势</h3>
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<p>文山州2012-2022年总人口持续下降，年增长率约为-2.04%。2022年较2021年人口增长近1万人，其他年份基本保持每年约减少5000人的速度在缓慢下降。预测显示，未来13年人口将减少41.9万人，至2035年降至303.5万人，年均增长率为-0.93%。</p>
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<p>楚雄州2012-2022年常住人口呈先增长后下降趋势，峰值出现在2019年达275.5万人；从2020年后呈现下降趋势，尤其是2020年，由2019年的275.5万人直接下降至241.7万人，减少33.8万人。预测显示，2022-2035年常住人口将呈逐步下降趋势，年均下降约2.54万人。</p>
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<h3>城乡人口变化</h3>
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<p>文山州2023-2035年城镇人口数量呈缓慢增长趋势，乡村人口数量呈显著减少趋势。人口向州府所在地转移，为文山市发展成为50万人口区域性中心城市奠定基础，同时也对文山市城区教育发展提出新挑战。</p>
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<p>楚雄州城乡人口变化呈现复杂趋势。2012-2022年全州城乡常住人口数量呈现波浪式下降趋势，2023-2035年城镇人口数量呈缓慢增长趋势，而乡村人口数量从2022年126.1万人下降至2035年的81.0万人，年均下降3.2万人。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>图表展示</h2>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h3>图表1：总人口变化趋势图</h3>
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<canvas id="populationTrendChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h3>图表2：城乡人口变化趋势图1</h3>
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<canvas id="urbanRuralTrendChart1"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h3>图表3：城乡人口变化趋势图2</h3>
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<canvas id="urbanRuralTrendChart2"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h3>图表4：学生数量变化趋势图1</h3>
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<canvas id="studentTrendChart1"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h3>图表5：学生数量变化趋势图2</h3>
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<canvas id="studentTrendChart2"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h3>图表6：学生数量对比图</h3>
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<canvas id="studentComparisonChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h3>图表7：教职工需求变化趋势图1</h3>
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<canvas id="teacherTrendChart1"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h3>图表8：教职工需求变化趋势图2</h3>
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<canvas id="teacherTrendChart2"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h3>图表9：学校占地面积需求对比图</h3>
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<canvas id="schoolAreaChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>结论与建议</h2>
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<div class="conclusion">
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<h3>主要结论</h3>
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<p>1. 两州总人口均呈现下降趋势，但城乡人口结构变化显著，城镇人口增加而乡村人口减少。</p>
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<p>2. 学生数量整体呈下降趋势，特别是乡村地区下降明显，城镇地区相对稳定或有小幅增长。</p>
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<p>3. 教职工需求总体呈下降趋势，但存在区域性、结构性和学科性短缺问题。</p>
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<p>4. 学校占地面积需求增长放缓或减少，现有资源基本能满足需求。</p>
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<h3>政策建议</h3>
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<p>1. 优化教育资源配置，适应城乡人口结构变化，加强城镇教育资源建设。</p>
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<p>2. 关注教职工结构性短缺问题，加强师资培训和引进。</p>
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<p>3. 合理规划学校布局，提高现有教育资源使用效率。</p>
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<p>4. 加强乡村教育质量提升，防止城乡教育差距进一步扩大。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<script>
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// 图表1：总人口变化趋势图
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const populationTrendCtx = document.getElementById('populationTrendChart').getContext('2d');
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// 图表2：城乡人口变化趋势图1
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const urbanRuralTrendChart1Ctx = document.getElementById('urbanRuralTrendChart1').getContext('2d');
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const urbanRuralTrendChart1 = new Chart(urbanRuralTrendChart1Ctx, {
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// 图表3：城乡人口变化趋势图2
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const urbanRuralTrendChart2Ctx = document.getElementById('urbanRuralTrendChart2').getContext('2d');
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const urbanRuralTrendChart2 = new Chart(urbanRuralTrendChart2Ctx, {
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data: {
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// 图表4：学生数量变化趋势图1
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const studentTrendChart1Ctx = document.getElementById('studentTrendChart1').getContext('2d');
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const studentTrendChart1 = new Chart(studentTrendChart1Ctx, {
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type: 'line',
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data: {
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labels: ['2012', '2015', '2018', '2019', '2020', '2021', '2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
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backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.2)',
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tension: 0.3,
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fill: true
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label: '文山州小学生在校生(万人)',
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data: [32, 33, 34, 35, 35.5, 35.8, 36.45, 34, 33, 32.02],
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borderColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 1)',
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options: {
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});
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// 图表5：学生数量变化趋势图2
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const studentTrendChart2Ctx = document.getElementById('studentTrendChart2').getContext('2d');
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const studentTrendChart2 = new Chart(studentTrendChart2Ctx, {
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type: 'line',
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data: {
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labels: ['2012', '2015', '2018', '2019', '2020', '2021', '2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
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datasets: [
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{
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borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州高中在校生(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [4.28, 5, 6, 7, 7.5, 8, 8.94, 8.5, 8, 7.86],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州初中和高中在校生数量变化(2012-2035)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '学生数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表6：学生数量对比图
|
|
|
const studentComparisonCtx = document.getElementById('studentComparisonChart').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const studentComparisonChart = new Chart(studentComparisonCtx, {
|
|
|
type: 'bar',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['学前在园幼儿', '小学生在校生', '初中在校生', '高中在校生'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州2022年',
|
|
|
data: [16.88, 36.45, 18.43, 8.94],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.7)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州2035年预测',
|
|
|
data: [14.83, 32.02, 16.2, 7.86],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.3)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2022年',
|
|
|
data: [7.5, 14.83, 7.61, 5.1],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.7)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2035年预测',
|
|
|
data: [6.64, 13.12, 6.74, 4.34],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.3)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州与楚雄州学生数量对比(2022 vs 2035)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: true,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '学生数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表7：教职工需求变化趋势图1
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart1Ctx = document.getElementById('teacherTrendChart1').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart1 = new Chart(teacherTrendChart1Ctx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州学前教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [1.1, 1.05, 1.0, 0.95],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州小学教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [0.8, 0.75, 0.72, 0.69],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州学前和小学教职工需求变化(2022-2035)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '教职工数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表8：教职工需求变化趋势图2
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart2Ctx = document.getElementById('teacherTrendChart2').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart2 = new Chart(teacherTrendChart2Ctx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州初中教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [0.6, 0.55, 0.52, 0.5],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州高中教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [0.4, 0.38, 0.36, 0.35],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州初中和高中教职工需求变化(2022-2035)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '教职工数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表9：学校占地面积需求对比图
|
|
|
const schoolAreaCtx = document.getElementById('schoolAreaChart').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const schoolAreaChart = new Chart(schoolAreaCtx, {
|
|
|
type: 'bar',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['学前', '小学', '初中', '高中'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州2022年',
|
|
|
data: [70, 180, 120, 160],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.7)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州2035年预测',
|
|
|
data: [65, 170, 115, 150],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.3)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2022年',
|
|
|
data: [74.3, 186.5, 124.4, 166.6],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.7)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2035年预测',
|
|
|
data: [66.4, 166.6, 111.2, 143.2],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.3)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州与楚雄州学校占地面积需求对比(2022 vs 2035)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: true,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '占地面积(万平方米)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
</script>
|
|
|
</body>
|
|
|
</html> |
