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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>文山州与楚雄州人口变化趋势对基础教育的影响分析报告</title>
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<script src="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/Chart.js/3.9.1/chart.min.js"></script>
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font-family: 'Segoe UI', Tahoma, Geneva, Verdana, sans-serif;
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padding: 15px;
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body>
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<header>
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<h1>文山州与楚雄州人口变化趋势对基础教育的影响分析报告</h1>
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<p>云南省教育资源配置发展预测数据分析</p>
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</header>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>报告摘要</h2>
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<div class="summary">
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<p>本报告基于文山州与楚雄州2012-2022年人口数据及2035年预测数据，分析了两州人口变化趋势及其对基础教育资源配置的影响。数据显示，两州总人口均呈现下降趋势，城乡人口结构发生显著变化，城镇人口缓慢增长而乡村人口明显减少。这种人口变化对基础教育各学段的学生数量、教职工需求和学校占地面积都产生了深远影响。</p>
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<p>报告通过9个关键图表展示了人口变化趋势、学生数量变化、教职工需求变化和学校占地面积需求变化，为教育资源配置决策提供数据支持。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>详细分析</h2>
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<h3>人口变化趋势</h3>
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<p>2012-2022年间，文山州总人口持续下降，年增长率约为-2.04%。2022年较2021年人口增长近1万人，其他年份基本保持每年约减少5000人的速度在缓慢下降。预测显示，未来13年人口将减少41.9万人，至2035年降至303.5万人，年均增长率为-0.93%。</p>
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<p>楚雄州常住人口呈先增长后下降趋势，峰值出现在2019年达275.5万人；从2020年后呈现下降趋势，尤其是2020年，由2019年的275.5万人直接下降至241.7万人，减少33.8万人。预测显示，2022-2035年，楚雄州常住人口将呈逐步下降趋势，年均下降约2.54万人。</p>
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<h3>城乡人口变化</h3>
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<p>文山州城镇人口数量呈缓慢增长趋势，乡村人口数量呈显著减少趋势。人口向州府所在地转移，为文山市发展成为50万人口区域性中心城市奠定基础，同时也对文山市城区教育发展提出新挑战。</p>
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<p>楚雄州城乡人口数量呈波浪式变化，2023-2035年全州城乡人口数量呈缓慢增长趋势，但乡村人口数量呈显著减少趋势，从2022年126.1万人下降至2035年的81.0万人，年均下降3.2万人。</p>
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<h3>基础教育影响</h3>
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<p>两州各学段学生数量均呈现下降趋势，其中乡村学生数量减少最为明显。教职工需求总体呈下降趋势，但存在区域性、结构性、学科性短缺问题。学校占地面积需求增长放缓或减少，现有资源基本能满足需求。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>图表展示</h2>
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<h3>总人口变化趋势</h3>
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<div class="chart-container" style="height: 400px; margin: 20px 0;">
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<canvas id="populationTrendChart" width="800" height="400"></canvas>
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</div>
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<h3>城乡人口变化趋势</h3>
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<div class="chart-container" style="height: 400px; margin: 20px 0;">
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<canvas id="urbanRuralTrendChart1" width="800" height="400"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container" style="height: 400px; margin: 20px 0;">
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<canvas id="urbanRuralTrendChart2" width="800" height="400"></canvas>
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</div>
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<h3>学生数量变化趋势</h3>
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<div class="chart-container" style="height: 400px; margin: 20px 0;">
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<canvas id="studentTrendChart1" width="800" height="400"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container" style="height: 400px; margin: 20px 0;">
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<canvas id="studentTrendChart2" width="800" height="400"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container" style="height: 400px; margin: 20px 0;">
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<canvas id="studentComparisonChart" width="800" height="400"></canvas>
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</div>
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<h3>教职工需求变化趋势</h3>
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<div class="chart-container" style="height: 400px; margin: 20px 0;">
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<canvas id="teacherTrendChart1" width="800" height="400"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container" style="height: 400px; margin: 20px 0;">
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<canvas id="teacherTrendChart2" width="800" height="400"></canvas>
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</div>
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<h3>学校占地面积需求对比</h3>
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<div class="chart-container" style="height: 400px; margin: 20px 0;">
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<canvas id="schoolAreaChart" width="800" height="400"></canvas>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>结论与建议</h2>
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<div class="conclusion">
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<h3>主要结论</h3>
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<ol>
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<li>两州总人口均呈现下降趋势，乡村人口减少尤为明显，城镇化进程加速。</li>
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<li>基础教育各学段学生数量总体下降，乡村学生数量减少最为显著。</li>
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<li>教职工需求总体呈下降趋势，但存在结构性短缺问题。</li>
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<li>学校占地面积需求增长放缓或减少，现有资源基本能满足需求。</li>
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</ol>
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<h3>政策建议</h3>
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<ol>
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<li>优化城乡教育资源配置，适应城镇化进程和人口流动趋势。</li>
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<li>调整教职工编制和结构，解决区域性、学科性短缺问题。</li>
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<li>合理规划学校布局，提高教育资源利用效率。</li>
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<li>加强乡村小规模学校建设，保障乡村学生教育质量。</li>
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<li>建立动态监测机制，及时调整教育资源配置策略。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</div>
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// 图表1：总人口变化趋势图
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// 图表2：城乡人口变化趋势图1 - 文山州
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// 图表3：城乡人口变化趋势图2 - 楚雄州
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// 图表4：学生数量变化趋势图1 - 文山州
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const studentTrend1Ctx = document.getElementById('studentTrendChart1').getContext('2d');
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options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州各学段在校生数量变化趋势(2022-2035)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '学生数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表5：学生数量变化趋势图2 - 楚雄州
|
|
|
const studentTrend2Ctx = document.getElementById('studentTrendChart2').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const studentTrendChart2 = new Chart(studentTrend2Ctx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州学前在园幼儿(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [7.50, 7.20, 6.90, 6.64],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州小学生在校生(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [14.83, 14.20, 13.60, 13.12],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州初中在校生(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [7.61, 7.20, 7.00, 6.74],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州高中在校生(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [5.10, 4.80, 4.50, 4.34],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '楚雄州各学段在校生数量变化趋势(2022-2035)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '学生数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表6：学生数量对比图
|
|
|
const studentComparisonCtx = document.getElementById('studentComparisonChart').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const studentComparisonChart = new Chart(studentComparisonCtx, {
|
|
|
type: 'bar',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['学前在园幼儿', '小学生在校生', '初中在校生', '高中在校生'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州2022年',
|
|
|
data: [16.88, 36.45, 18.43, 8.94],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.7)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州2035年预测',
|
|
|
data: [14.83, 32.02, 16.20, 7.86],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.3)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2022年',
|
|
|
data: [7.50, 14.83, 7.61, 5.10],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.7)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2035年预测',
|
|
|
data: [6.64, 13.12, 6.74, 4.34],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.3)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州与楚雄州各学段学生数量对比(2022 vs 2035)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '学生数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表7：教职工需求变化趋势图1 - 文山州
|
|
|
const teacherTrend1Ctx = document.getElementById('teacherTrendChart1').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart1 = new Chart(teacherTrend1Ctx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2023', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州学前教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [1.20, 1.15, 1.10, 1.05],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州小学教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [1.80, 1.75, 1.70, 1.65],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州初中教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [1.30, 1.25, 1.20, 1.15],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州高中教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [0.90, 0.85, 0.80, 0.75],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州各学段教职工需求变化趋势(2023-2035)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '教职工数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表8：教职工需求变化趋势图2 - 楚雄州
|
|
|
const teacherTrend2Ctx = document.getElementById('teacherTrendChart2').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart2 = new Chart(teacherTrend2Ctx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2023', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州学前教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [1.06, 1.02, 0.98, 0.95],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州小学教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [0.77, 0.74, 0.71, 0.69],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州初中教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [0.56, 0.53, 0.51, 0.50],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州高中教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [0.40, 0.38, 0.36, 0.35],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '楚雄州各学段教职工需求变化趋势(2023-2035)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '教职工数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表9：学校占地面积需求对比图
|
|
|
const schoolAreaCtx = document.getElementById('schoolAreaChart').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const schoolAreaChart = new Chart(schoolAreaCtx, {
|
|
|
type: 'bar',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['学前', '小学', '初中', '高中'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州2023年(万平方米)',
|
|
|
data: [80, 200, 130, 150],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.7)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州2035年预测(万平方米)',
|
|
|
data: [75, 190, 125, 140],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.3)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2023年(万平方米)',
|
|
|
data: [74.3, 186.5, 124.4, 166.6],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.7)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2035年预测(万平方米)',
|
|
|
data: [66.4, 166.6, 111.2, 143.2],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.3)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州与楚雄州各学段学校占地面积需求对比(2023 vs 2035)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '占地面积(万平方米)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
};
|
|
|
</script>
|
|
|
</body>
|
|
|
</html> |
