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<title>文山州与楚雄州人口变化趋势对基础教育的影响分析报告</title>
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</style>
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</head>
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<body>
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<header>
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<h1>文山州与楚雄州人口变化趋势对基础教育的影响分析报告</h1>
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<p>云南省教育资源配置发展预测分析报告</p>
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</header>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>报告摘要</h2>
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<div class="summary">
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<p>本报告基于文山州与楚雄州2012-2022年人口数据及2035年预测数据，分析了两州人口变化趋势及其对基础教育资源配置的影响。报告显示，两州总人口均呈下降趋势，城乡人口结构发生显著变化，城镇人口增加而乡村人口减少。这种人口变化对基础教育资源配置提出了新的挑战，包括教职工需求变化、学校占地面积调整以及城乡教育资源重新分配等问题。</p>
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<p>报告通过9个图表系统展示了人口变化趋势、学生数量变化、教职工需求变化和学校占地面积需求变化等关键指标，为教育资源配置决策提供了数据支持。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>详细分析</h2>
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<h3>1. 总人口变化趋势</h3>
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<p>2012-2022年间，文山州总人口持续下降，年均增长率约为-2.04%。2022年较2021年人口增长近1万人，其他年份基本保持每年约减少5000人的速度缓慢下降。预测显示，2022-2035年文山州人口将减少41.9万人，至2035年降至303.5万人，年均增长率为-0.93%。</p>
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<p>楚雄州常住人口呈先增长后下降趋势，峰值出现在2019年达275.5万人；2020年后呈现下降趋势，尤其是2020年，由2019年的275.5万人直接下降至241.7万人，减少33.8万人。2022-2035年，楚雄州常住人口将呈逐步下降趋势，年均下降约2.54万人。</p>
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<div class="chart-container" style="height: 400px; margin: 20px 0;">
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<canvas id="populationTrendChart" width="800" height="400"></canvas>
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</div>
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<h3>2. 城乡人口变化趋势</h3>
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<p>文山州2023-2035年城镇人口数量呈缓慢增长趋势，乡村人口数量呈显著减少趋势。人口向州府所在地转移，为文山市发展成为50万人口区域性中心城市奠定基础，同时也对文山市城区教育发展提出新挑战。</p>
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<p>楚雄州2012-2022年城乡常住人口数量呈现波浪式下降趋势，峰值出现在2019年的128.2万人。2023-2035年全州城乡人口数量呈缓慢增长趋势，但乡村人口数量呈显著减少趋势，从2022年126.1万人下降至2035年的81.0万人，年均下降3.2万人。</p>
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<div class="chart-container" style="height: 400px; margin: 20px 0;">
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<canvas id="urbanRuralTrendChart1" width="800" height="400"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container" style="height: 400px; margin: 20px 0;">
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<canvas id="urbanRuralTrendChart2" width="800" height="400"></canvas>
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</div>
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<h3>3. 学生数量变化趋势</h3>
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<p>文山州学前幼儿入园总数总体呈现波动变化，未来13年将持续下降，至2035年预计降至5.72万左右。小学生在校生数至2035年预计降至32.02万人左右，较2022年减少约4.43万人。初中在校生数至2035年降至16.2万人左右，减少约2.23万人。高中在校生数2035年预计降至7.86万人左右，减少约1.08万人。</p>
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<p>楚雄州学前在园幼儿数呈现明显持续上升趋势，但未来将大幅减少，至2035年预计达6.64万人左右。小学生在校生人数至2035年预计达到13.12万人左右，减少1.71万人左右。初中在校生数至2035年预计达6.74万人左右，减少约0.87万人。高中在校生人数至2035年预计达4.34万人左右，减少约0.76万人。</p>
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<div class="chart-container" style="height: 400px; margin: 20px 0;">
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<canvas id="studentTrendChart1" width="800" height="400"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container" style="height: 400px; margin: 20px 0;">
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<canvas id="studentTrendChart2" width="800" height="400"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container" style="height: 400px; margin: 20px 0;">
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<canvas id="studentComparisonChart" width="800" height="400"></canvas>
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</div>
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<h3>4. 教职工需求变化</h3>
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<p>文山州基础教育教职工数总体需求呈缓慢下降趋势，各学段教职工数总体上基本满足需求，但是教职工的区域性、结构性、学科性短缺将长期存在。</p>
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<p>楚雄州基础教育教职工数总体需求下降平缓，学前教育教职工数需求从2023年的1.06万人减少至2035年的0.95万人左右，小学教育教职工数从2023年的0.77万人减少至2035年的0.69万人左右，初中教育教职工数从2023年的0.56万人减少至2035年的0.50万人左右。</p>
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<div class="chart-container" style="height: 400px; margin: 20px 0;">
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<canvas id="teacherTrendChart1" width="800" height="400"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container" style="height: 400px; margin: 20px 0;">
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<canvas id="teacherTrendChart2" width="800" height="400"></canvas>
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</div>
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<h3>5. 学校占地面积需求</h3>
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<p>文山州基础教育学校占地面积总量需求增长放缓，各学段学校占地面积总体上基本满足需求。</p>
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<p>楚雄州基础教育学校占地面积总量需求减少平缓，学前幼儿园占地面积从2023年的74.30万平方米减少至2035年的66.40万平方米，小学占地面积从2023年的186.5万平方米减少至2035年的166.6万平方米，初中占地面积从2023年的124.4万平方米减少至2035年的111.2万平方米。</p>
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<div class="chart-container" style="height: 400px; margin: 20px 0;">
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<canvas id="schoolAreaChart" width="800" height="400"></canvas>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>结论与建议</h2>
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<div class="conclusion">
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<h3>主要结论</h3>
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<ol>
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<li>两州总人口均呈现下降趋势，文山州下降更为平缓，楚雄州下降速度较快且波动较大。</li>
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<li>城乡人口结构发生显著变化，城镇人口增加而乡村人口减少，人口向中心城市集中。</li>
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<li>各学段学生数量总体呈下降趋势，但不同学段、不同区域变化幅度不一。</li>
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<li>教职工需求总体呈下降趋势，但区域性、结构性短缺问题将长期存在。</li>
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<li>学校占地面积需求增长放缓或减少，为优化资源配置提供了空间。</li>
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</ol>
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<h3>政策建议</h3>
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<ol>
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<li>建立动态调整机制，根据人口变化趋势优化教育资源配置。</li>
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<li>加强城乡教育资源统筹，应对人口向城镇集中的趋势。</li>
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<li>关注教职工结构性短缺问题，加强师资队伍建设。</li>
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<li>利用学校占地面积需求变化的机会，优化学校布局，提高资源利用效率。</li>
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<li>建立长期监测机制，持续跟踪人口变化对教育的影响。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</div>
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// 图表2：城乡人口变化趋势图1
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const urbanRuralTrendChart1Ctx = document.getElementById('urbanRuralTrendChart1').getContext('2d');
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text: '年份'
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// 图表3：城乡人口变化趋势图2
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const urbanRuralTrendChart2Ctx = document.getElementById('urbanRuralTrendChart2').getContext('2d');
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const urbanRuralTrendChart2 = new Chart(urbanRuralTrendChart2Ctx, {
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type: 'line',
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data: {
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labels: ['2012', '2015', '2018', '2019', '2020', '2021', '2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
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backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '楚雄州城乡人口变化趋势(2012-2035)',
|
|
|
font: {
|
|
|
size: 16
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
legend: {
|
|
|
position: 'top'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '人口数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
x: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '年份'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表4：学生数量变化趋势图1
|
|
|
const studentTrendChart1Ctx = document.getElementById('studentTrendChart1').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const studentTrendChart1 = new Chart(studentTrendChart1Ctx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2012', '2015', '2018', '2019', '2020', '2021', '2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州学前在园幼儿(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [12.0, 13.5, 15.0, 15.5, 16.0, 16.5, 16.88, 15.5, 14.0, 14.83],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州小学生在校生(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [36.0, 36.5, 37.0, 37.5, 36.5, 36.0, 36.45, 35.0, 33.5, 32.02],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州学前与小学学生数量变化趋势(2012-2035)',
|
|
|
font: {
|
|
|
size: 16
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
legend: {
|
|
|
position: 'top'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '学生数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
x: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '年份'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表5：学生数量变化趋势图2
|
|
|
const studentTrendChart2Ctx = document.getElementById('studentTrendChart2').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const studentTrendChart2 = new Chart(studentTrendChart2Ctx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2012', '2015', '2018', '2019', '2020', '2021', '2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州初中在校生(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [14.0, 15.0, 16.0, 16.5, 17.0, 17.5, 18.43, 17.5, 16.5, 16.2],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州高中在校生(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [4.28, 5.5, 7.0, 7.5, 8.0, 8.5, 8.94, 8.5, 8.0, 7.86],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州初中与高中学生数量变化趋势(2012-2035)',
|
|
|
font: {
|
|
|
size: 16
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
legend: {
|
|
|
position: 'top'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '学生数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
x: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '年份'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表6：学生数量对比图
|
|
|
const studentComparisonCtx = document.getElementById('studentComparisonChart').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const studentComparisonChart = new Chart(studentComparisonCtx, {
|
|
|
type: 'bar',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['学前', '小学', '初中', '高中'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州2022年',
|
|
|
data: [16.88, 36.45, 18.43, 8.94],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.7)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州2035年',
|
|
|
data: [14.83, 32.02, 16.2, 7.86],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.7)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2022年',
|
|
|
data: [7.5, 14.83, 7.61, 5.1],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 0.7)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2035年',
|
|
|
data: [6.64, 13.12, 6.74, 4.34],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 0.7)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州与楚雄州各学段学生数量对比(2022 vs 2035)',
|
|
|
font: {
|
|
|
size: 16
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
legend: {
|
|
|
position: 'top'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: true,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '学生数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
x: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '学段'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表7：教职工需求变化趋势图1
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart1Ctx = document.getElementById('teacherTrendChart1').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart1 = new Chart(teacherTrendChart1Ctx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2023', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州学前教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [0.85, 0.82, 0.78, 0.75],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州小学教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [1.2, 1.15, 1.1, 1.05],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州学前与小学教职工需求变化趋势(2023-2035)',
|
|
|
font: {
|
|
|
size: 16
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
legend: {
|
|
|
position: 'top'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '教职工数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
x: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '年份'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表8：教职工需求变化趋势图2
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart2Ctx = document.getElementById('teacherTrendChart2').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart2 = new Chart(teacherTrendChart2Ctx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2023', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州初中教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [0.9, 0.85, 0.8, 0.75],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州高中教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [0.6, 0.58, 0.55, 0.52],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州学前教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [1.06, 1.02, 0.98, 0.95],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州小学教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [0.77, 0.74, 0.71, 0.69],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 206, 86, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 206, 86, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州与楚雄州教职工需求变化趋势(2023-2035)',
|
|
|
font: {
|
|
|
size: 16
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
legend: {
|
|
|
position: 'top'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '教职工数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
x: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '年份'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表9：学校占地面积需求对比图
|
|
|
const schoolAreaCtx = document.getElementById('schoolAreaChart').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const schoolAreaChart = new Chart(schoolAreaCtx, {
|
|
|
type: 'bar',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['学前', '小学', '初中', '高中'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州2023年',
|
|
|
data: [120, 300, 200, 180],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.7)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州2035年',
|
|
|
data: [115, 290, 190, 175],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.7)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2023年',
|
|
|
data: [74.3, 186.5, 124.4, 166.6],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 0.7)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2035年',
|
|
|
data: [66.4, 166.6, 111.2, 143.2],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 0.7)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州与楚雄州学校占地面积需求对比(2023 vs 2035)',
|
|
|
font: {
|
|
|
size: 16
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
legend: {
|
|
|
position: 'top'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: true,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '占地面积(万平方米)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
x: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '学段'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
};
|
|
|
</script>
|
|
|
</body>
|
|
|
</html> |
