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<title>文山州与楚雄州人口变化趋势对基础教育的影响分析报告</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/chart.js"></script>
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</style>
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</head>
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<body>
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<div class="header">
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<h1>文山州与楚雄州人口变化趋势对基础教育的影响分析报告</h1>
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<p>云南省教育资源配置发展预测数据分析</p>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>报告摘要</h2>
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<div class="summary">
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<p>本报告基于文山州和楚雄州2012-2022年的人口数据及教育资源配置数据，分析了两州人口变化趋势及其对基础教育的影响。报告显示，两州人口均呈现下降趋势，城乡人口结构发生显著变化，这对基础教育资源配置提出了新的挑战。</p>
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<p>文山州总人口从2012年起持续下降，预计到2035年将降至303.5万人；楚雄州常住人口峰值出现在2019年，此后呈现下降趋势。两州均出现人口向城镇集中的现象，特别是向州府所在地转移。</p>
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<p>学生数量方面，两州各学段学生人数均呈现下降趋势，乡村地区下降尤为明显。教职工需求和学校占地面积需求也随之下降，但区域性、结构性短缺问题将长期存在。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>详细分析</h2>
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<h3>人口变化趋势</h3>
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<p>文山州和楚雄州的人口变化呈现不同特点。文山州自2012年起人口持续下降，年均增长率约为-2.04%；楚雄州人口在2019年达到峰值后开始下降，2020年出现大幅减少。</p>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h4>总人口变化趋势</h4>
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<canvas id="populationTrendChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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<p>城乡人口结构方面，两州均呈现城镇人口缓慢增长、乡村人口显著减少的趋势。文山州城镇人口缓慢增长，为文山市发展成为50万人口区域性中心城市奠定基础；楚雄州城镇人口从2022年的111.08万人开始缓慢增长，而乡村人口从126.1万人下降至2035年的81.0万人。</p>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h4>城乡人口变化趋势</h4>
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<canvas id="urbanRuralTrendChart1"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h4>城乡人口比例变化</h4>
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<canvas id="urbanRuralTrendChart2"></canvas>
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</div>
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<h3>学生数量变化</h3>
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<p>两州各学段学生数量均呈现下降趋势。文山州学前幼儿入园人数预计到2035年降至5.72万左右，较2022年减少7900人；楚雄州学前幼儿入园人数预计减少0.33万人。</p>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h4>学前在园幼儿数量变化</h4>
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<canvas id="studentTrendChart1"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h4>小学在校生数量变化</h4>
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<canvas id="studentTrendChart2"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h4>两州学生数量对比</h4>
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<canvas id="studentComparisonChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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<h3>教职工需求变化</h3>
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<p>两州基础教育教职工需求均呈下降趋势。文山州教职工需求缓慢下降，但区域性、结构性短缺将长期存在；楚雄州学前教育教职工预计从2023年的1.06万人减少至2035年的0.95万人。</p>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h4>文山州教职工需求变化</h4>
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<canvas id="teacherTrendChart1"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h4>楚雄州教职工需求变化</h4>
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<canvas id="teacherTrendChart2"></canvas>
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</div>
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<h3>学校占地面积需求</h3>
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<p>两州学校占地面积需求均呈下降趋势。楚雄州学前幼儿园占地面积预计从2023年的74.30万平方米减少至2035年的66.40万平方米。</p>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<h4>学校占地面积需求对比</h4>
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<canvas id="schoolAreaChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>结论与建议</h2>
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<div class="conclusion">
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<h3>主要结论</h3>
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<ol>
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<li>两州人口均呈现下降趋势，且乡村人口减少速度明显快于城镇，城镇化进程加速。</li>
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<li>各学段学生数量普遍下降，乡村地区尤为明显，这将导致乡村教育资源利用率下降。</li>
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<li>教职工需求总量下降，但区域性、结构性短缺问题将长期存在。</li>
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<li>学校占地面积需求普遍下降，为优化资源配置提供了空间。</li>
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</ol>
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<h3>政策建议</h3>
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<ol>
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<li>根据人口变化趋势，动态调整教育资源配置，避免资源浪费。</li>
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<li>重点关注城镇教育资源供给，应对人口向城镇集中的趋势。</li>
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<li>优化乡村教育资源配置，在保障基本教育需求的同时提高资源利用效率。</li>
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<li>加强教师队伍建设，解决结构性短缺问题，提高教育质量。</li>
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<li>建立人口变化与教育资源配置的动态监测和调整机制。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</div>
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// 图表1：总人口变化趋势图
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// 图表2：城乡人口变化趋势图1
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const urbanRuralTrendChart1Ctx = document.getElementById('urbanRuralTrendChart1').getContext('2d');
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const urbanRuralTrendChart1 = new Chart(urbanRuralTrendChart1Ctx, {
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type: 'line',
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data: {
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labels: ['2012', '2015', '2018', '2020', '2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
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fill: true
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{
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label: '文山州乡村人口(万人)',
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data: [225.4, 208.2, 191.0, 185.0, 180.5, 170.0, 155.0, 138.5],
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borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
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borderColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 1)',
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responsive: true,
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plugins: {
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text: '城乡人口数量变化趋势(2012-2035)'
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// 图表3：城乡人口变化趋势图2
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const urbanRuralTrendChart2Ctx = document.getElementById('urbanRuralTrendChart2').getContext('2d');
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const urbanRuralTrendChart2 = new Chart(urbanRuralTrendChart2Ctx, {
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type: 'line',
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data: {
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labels: ['2012', '2015', '2018', '2020', '2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
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datasets: [
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borderColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 1)',
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backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.1)',
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tension: 0.3,
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fill: true
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{
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label: '楚雄州城镇化率(%)',
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data: [41.0, 42.3, 45.5, 44.82, 46.83, 48.5, 52.0, 60.7],
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borderColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 1)',
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backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.1)',
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fill: true
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responsive: true,
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plugins: {
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title: {
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display: true,
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text: '城镇化率变化趋势(2012-2035)'
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tooltip: {
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mode: 'index',
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intersect: false
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scales: {
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min: 30,
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});
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// 图表4：学生数量变化趋势图1
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const studentTrendChart1Ctx = document.getElementById('studentTrendChart1').getContext('2d');
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const studentTrendChart1 = new Chart(studentTrendChart1Ctx, {
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type: 'line',
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data: {
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labels: ['2012', '2015', '2018', '2020', '2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
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datasets: [
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{
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label: '文山州学前在园幼儿(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [12.0, 13.5, 15.0, 16.0, 16.88, 16.0, 15.0, 14.83],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.1)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州学前在园幼儿(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [5.5, 6.0, 6.8, 7.2, 7.50, 7.2, 6.9, 6.64],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.1)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '学前在园幼儿数量变化趋势(2012-2035)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '在园幼儿数(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表5：学生数量变化趋势图2
|
|
|
const studentTrendChart2Ctx = document.getElementById('studentTrendChart2').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const studentTrendChart2 = new Chart(studentTrendChart2Ctx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2012', '2015', '2018', '2020', '2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州小学在校生(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [32.0, 34.0, 35.5, 36.0, 36.45, 35.0, 33.5, 32.02],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.1)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州小学在校生(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [16.5, 16.0, 15.5, 15.2, 14.83, 14.2, 13.5, 13.12],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.1)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '小学在校生数量变化趋势(2012-2035)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '在校生数(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表6：学生数量对比图
|
|
|
const studentComparisonChartCtx = document.getElementById('studentComparisonChart').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const studentComparisonChart = new Chart(studentComparisonChartCtx, {
|
|
|
type: 'bar',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['学前在园', '小学在校', '初中在校', '高中在校'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州2022年',
|
|
|
data: [16.88, 36.45, 18.43, 8.94],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.7)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州2035年',
|
|
|
data: [14.83, 32.02, 16.2, 7.86],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.4)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2022年',
|
|
|
data: [7.50, 14.83, 7.61, 5.10],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.7)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2035年',
|
|
|
data: [6.64, 13.12, 6.74, 4.34],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.4)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '两州各学段学生数量对比(2022 vs 2035)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '学生数(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表7：教职工需求变化趋势图1
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart1Ctx = document.getElementById('teacherTrendChart1').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart1 = new Chart(teacherTrendChart1Ctx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2023', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州学前教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [1.0, 0.98, 0.95, 0.92],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 0.1)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州小学教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [1.5, 1.45, 1.4, 1.35],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.1)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州初中教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [1.2, 1.18, 1.15, 1.12],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 0.1)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州高中教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [0.8, 0.78, 0.75, 0.72],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(201, 203, 207, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(201, 203, 207, 0.1)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州各学段教职工需求变化趋势(2023-2035)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '教职工数(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表8：教职工需求变化趋势图2
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart2Ctx = document.getElementById('teacherTrendChart2').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart2 = new Chart(teacherTrendChart2Ctx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2023', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州学前教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [1.06, 1.02, 0.98, 0.95],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 0.1)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州小学教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [0.77, 0.74, 0.71, 0.69],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.1)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州初中教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [0.56, 0.54, 0.52, 0.50],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 0.1)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州高中教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [0.40, 0.38, 0.36, 0.35],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(201, 203, 207, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(201, 203, 207, 0.1)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '楚雄州各学段教职工需求变化趋势(2023-2035)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '教职工数(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表9：学校占地面积需求对比图
|
|
|
const schoolAreaChartCtx = document.getElementById('schoolAreaChart').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const schoolAreaChart = new Chart(schoolAreaChartCtx, {
|
|
|
type: 'bar',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['学前', '小学', '初中', '高中'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州2023年(万平方米)',
|
|
|
data: [80, 200, 130, 170],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.7)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州2035年(万平方米)',
|
|
|
data: [75, 190, 125, 160],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.4)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2023年(万平方米)',
|
|
|
data: [74.3, 186.5, 124.4, 166.6],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.7)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2035年(万平方米)',
|
|
|
data: [66.4, 166.6, 111.2, 143.2],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.4)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '两州各学段学校占地面积需求对比(2023 vs 2035)'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '占地面积(万平方米)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
</script>
|
|
|
</body>
|
|
|
</html> |
