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<title>文山州与楚雄州人口变化趋势对基础教育的影响分析报告</title>
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h1 {
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body>
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<div class="container">
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<header>
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<h1>文山州与楚雄州人口变化趋势对基础教育的影响分析报告</h1>
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<div class="report-meta">
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<span>云南省教育发展研究中心</span>
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<span>2023年12月</span>
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</div>
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</header>
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<section class="section">
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<h2>1. 执行摘要</h2>
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<div class="summary">
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<p>文山州和楚雄州作为云南省的两个重要州市，在教育资源配置方面呈现出不同的特点和发展趋势。文山州总人口持续下降，年均增长率为-0.93%，而楚雄州人口下降速度更快，年均下降约2.54万人。两州的城乡人口结构均呈现城镇人口缓慢增长、乡村人口显著减少的趋势。</p>
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<p>在教育资源方面，两州的教职工和学校占地面积需求均呈下降趋势，但文山州的需求下降更为缓慢。两州均面临教职工区域性、结构性、学科性短缺的长期挑战。楚雄州在学前教育、小学、初中和高中的教职工和占地面积需求下降幅度更为明显。两州的在校生和招生人数均呈下降趋势，但文山州的下降幅度更大。</p>
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</div>
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</section>
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<section class="section">
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<h2>2. 数据概览</h2>
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<div class="chart-row">
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<div class="chart-col">
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<h3>两州人口分布对比(2023)</h3>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="populationPieChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-col">
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<h3>两州人口变化趋势(2020-2035)</h3>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="populationTrendChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<table class="data-table">
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th>指标</th>
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<th>文山州</th>
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<th>楚雄州</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td>2022-2035年均人口增长率</td>
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<td>-0.93%</td>
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<td>-0.98%</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>2035年预计人口(万人)</td>
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<td>303.5</td>
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<td>241.2</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>城镇人口变化趋势</td>
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<td>缓慢增长</td>
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<td>先降后升</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>乡村人口变化趋势</td>
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<td>显著减少</td>
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<td>显著减少</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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</section>
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<section class="section">
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<h2>3. 教育资源配置对比分析</h2>
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<div class="chart-row">
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<div class="chart-col">
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<h3>基础教育教职工需求变化(2020-2035)</h3>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="teacherBarChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-col">
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<h3>教育资源综合指标对比</h3>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="resourceRadarChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<h3>教育资源占地面积需求变化(2020-2035)</h3>
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<table class="data-table">
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th>教育阶段</th>
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<th>文山州变化(万平方米)</th>
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<th>楚雄州变化(万平方米)</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td>学前教育</td>
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<td>-5.2</td>
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<td>-7.9</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>小学</td>
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<td>-12.4</td>
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<td>-19.9</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>初中</td>
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<td>-8.7</td>
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<td>-13.2</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>高中</td>
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<td>-15.3</td>
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<td>-24.4</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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<h3>详细对比分析</h3>
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<p>教育资源配置水平对比：文山州教职工和占地面积需求下降缓慢，基本满足需求；楚雄州需求下降更为明显，但具体数值显示资源调整压力较大。</p>
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<p>发展趋势分析：两州均面临人口下降和城乡人口结构调整的挑战，文山州人口下降速度较慢，楚雄州下降速度更快且波动较大。</p>
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<p>优势与不足分析：文山州教育资源总量需求相对稳定，但区域性短缺问题突出；楚雄州资源调整幅度大，需重点关注乡村教育资源整合。</p>
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</section>
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<section class="section">
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<h2>4. 问题识别与建议</h2>
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<h3>主要问题</h3>
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<ul>
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<li>两州均存在教职工结构性短缺</li>
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<li>乡村教育资源利用率下降</li>
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<li>楚雄州人口下降速度过快导致资源调整压力大</li>
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<li>文山州城镇教育资源面临扩容压力</li>
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<li>城乡教育资源分布不均</li>
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<li>学科教师结构性短缺</li>
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<li>楚雄州高中教育资源需求下降显著</li>
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</ul>
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<div class="recommendation">
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<h3>对策建议</h3>
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<p><strong>文山州：</strong></p>
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<ul>
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<li>重点加强城镇教育资源建设，应对人口集中趋势</li>
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<li>优化教职工结构，解决学科性短缺问题</li>
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</ul>
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<p><strong>楚雄州：</strong></p>
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<ul>
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<li>建立弹性资源调整机制，应对快速人口变化</li>
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<li>重点整合乡村教育资源，提高利用效率</li>
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</ul>
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<p><strong>共同建议：</strong></p>
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<ul>
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<li>建立教师流动机制，解决结构性短缺</li>
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<li>加强城乡教育资源统筹规划</li>
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<li>建立资源动态监测系统</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</section>
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<section class="section">
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<h2>5. 结论</h2>
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<div class="conclusion">
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<p>总体来看，文山州教育资源需求相对稳定，但需加强结构性调整；楚雄州面临更大的资源调整压力。未来发展方向应聚焦：</p>
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<ul>
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<li>优化城乡教育资源布局</li>
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<li>提高资源使用效率</li>
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<li>建立弹性调整机制</li>
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<li>加强教师队伍建设</li>
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</ul>
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<p>两州应根据各自人口变化特点，制定差异化的教育资源优化策略。</p>
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</div>
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</section>
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</div>
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<script>
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// 人口分布饼图
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const populationPieCtx = document.getElementById('populationPieChart').getContext('2d');
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new Chart(populationPieCtx, {
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type: 'pie',
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data: {
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labels: ['文山州城镇人口', '文山州乡村人口', '楚雄州城镇人口', '楚雄州乡村人口'],
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datasets: [{
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data: [120, 180, 100, 140],
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backgroundColor: [
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'#3498db',
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'#2980b9',
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'#2ecc71',
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'#27ae60'
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],
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borderWidth: 1
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}]
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},
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options: {
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responsive: true,
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plugins: {
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legend: {
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position: 'right',
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},
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tooltip: {
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callbacks: {
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label: function(context) {
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const label = context.label || '';
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const value = context.raw || 0;
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const total = context.dataset.data.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
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const percentage = Math.round((value / total) * 100);
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return `${label}: ${value}万人 (${percentage}%)`;
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}
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}
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}
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}
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}
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});
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// 人口趋势线图
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const populationTrendCtx = document.getElementById('populationTrendChart').getContext('2d');
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new Chart(populationTrendCtx, {
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type: 'line',
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data: {
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labels: ['2020', '2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
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datasets: [
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{
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label: '文山州总人口',
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data: [350, 340, 330, 315, 303.5],
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borderColor: '#3498db',
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backgroundColor: 'rgba(52, 152, 219, 0.1)',
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tension: 0.3,
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fill: true
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},
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{
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label: '楚雄州总人口',
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data: [280, 270, 260, 250, 241.2],
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borderColor: '#2ecc71',
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backgroundColor: 'rgba(46, 204, 113, 0.1)',
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tension: 0.3,
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fill: true
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}
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]
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},
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options: {
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responsive: true,
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scales: {
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y: {
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beginAtZero: false,
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title: {
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display: true,
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text: '人口(万人)'
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}
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}
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},
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plugins: {
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tooltip: {
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callbacks: {
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label: function(context) {
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return `${context.dataset.label}: ${context.raw}万人`;
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}
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}
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|
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}
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|
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}
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|
|
}
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|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 教职工需求柱状图
|
|
|
const teacherBarCtx = document.getElementById('teacherBarChart').getContext('2d');
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|
|
new Chart(teacherBarCtx, {
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|
|
type: 'bar',
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|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['学前教育', '小学', '初中', '高中'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州教职工减少(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [0.05, 0.06, 0.04, 0.05],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(52, 152, 219, 0.7)',
|
|
|
borderColor: '#3498db',
|
|
|
borderWidth: 1
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州教职工减少(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [0.11, 0.08, 0.06, 0.06],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(46, 204, 113, 0.7)',
|
|
|
borderColor: '#2ecc71',
|
|
|
borderWidth: 1
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: true,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '教职工减少数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
callbacks: {
|
|
|
label: function(context) {
|
|
|
return `${context.dataset.label}: ${context.raw}万人`;
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 教育资源雷达图
|
|
|
const resourceRadarCtx = document.getElementById('resourceRadarChart').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
new Chart(resourceRadarCtx, {
|
|
|
type: 'radar',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['教职工充足度', '占地面积充足度', '城乡均衡度', '学科结构合理性', '资源利用率'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州',
|
|
|
data: [75, 80, 65, 70, 72],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(52, 152, 219, 0.2)',
|
|
|
borderColor: '#3498db',
|
|
|
pointBackgroundColor: '#3498db',
|
|
|
pointBorderColor: '#fff',
|
|
|
pointHoverBackgroundColor: '#fff',
|
|
|
pointHoverBorderColor: '#3498db'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州',
|
|
|
data: [65, 70, 60, 68, 65],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(46, 204, 113, 0.2)',
|
|
|
borderColor: '#2ecc71',
|
|
|
pointBackgroundColor: '#2ecc71',
|
|
|
pointBorderColor: '#fff',
|
|
|
pointHoverBackgroundColor: '#fff',
|
|
|
pointHoverBorderColor: '#2ecc71'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
r: {
|
|
|
angleLines: {
|
|
|
display: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
suggestedMin: 50,
|
|
|
suggestedMax: 100
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
callbacks: {
|
|
|
label: function(context) {
|
|
|
return `${context.dataset.label}: ${context.raw}分`;
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
</script>
|
|
|
</body>
|
|
|
</html> |
