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<title>文山州与楚雄州人口变化趋势对基础教育的影响分析报告</title>
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</style>
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</head>
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<body>
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<header>
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<h1>文山州与楚雄州人口变化趋势对基础教育的影响分析报告</h1>
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<p>基于2012-2035年人口与教育数据预测分析</p>
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</header>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>报告摘要</h2>
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<div class="summary">
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<p>本报告分析了文山州与楚雄州2012-2022年的人口变化趋势，并预测了2023-2035年的人口发展及对基础教育资源配置的影响。数据显示，两州人口均呈现下降趋势，但城乡变化模式不同。文山州总人口年均下降0.93%，楚雄州年均下降约2.54万人。城乡人口结构变化显著，城镇人口缓慢增长，乡村人口显著减少。这种人口变化对基础教育资源配置提出了新的挑战，包括教职工需求变化、学校占地面积调整以及城乡教育资源配置优化等问题。</p>
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<p>报告通过9个关键图表展示了人口变化趋势、学生数量变化、教职工需求变化和学校占地面积需求对比等核心指标，为教育资源配置决策提供数据支持。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>详细分析</h2>
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<h3>1. 总人口变化趋势</h3>
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<p>文山州与楚雄州在2012-2022年间呈现出不同的人口变化模式。文山州总人口持续下降，年均增长率为-2.04%，2022年较2021年略有回升。预测显示，至2035年文山州人口将降至303.5万人，年均增长率为-0.93%。</p>
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<p>楚雄州常住人口呈先增长后下降趋势，2019年达到峰值275.5万人，2020年急剧下降33.8万人。预测显示2022-2035年楚雄州常住人口将逐步下降，年均下降约2.54万人，且下降速度将加快。</p>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="populationTrendChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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<h3>2. 城乡人口结构变化</h3>
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<p>文山州城镇人口数量呈缓慢增长趋势，乡村人口数量显著减少。人口向州府所在地转移，为文山市发展成为50万人口区域性中心城市奠定基础，同时也对文山市城区教育发展提出新挑战。</p>
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<p>楚雄州城乡人口变化更为复杂，2012-2022年呈现波浪式下降趋势，2019年达到峰值。2023-2035年城镇人口将缓慢增长，而乡村人口从2022年126.1万人下降至2035年的81.0万人，年均下降3.2万人。</p>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="urbanRuralTrendChart1"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="urbanRuralTrendChart2"></canvas>
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</div>
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<h3>3. 学生数量变化趋势</h3>
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<p>文山州学前教育幼儿入园人数将持续下降，至2035年预计降至5.72万左右。小学招生数至2035年预计降至4.8万人左右，在校生数将降至32.02万人左右。初中招生数明显下降，至2035年预计降至5.7万人左右。</p>
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<p>楚雄州学前教育幼儿入园人数减少幅度不大，至2035年预计招生2.57万人左右。小学招生数至2035年预计达2.01万人左右，在校生人数将达13.12万人左右。初中在校生数至2035年预计达6.74万人左右。</p>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="studentTrendChart1"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="studentTrendChart2"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="studentComparisonChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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<h3>4. 教职工需求变化</h3>
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<p>文山州基础教育教职工数总体需求呈缓慢下降趋势，各学段教职工数基本满足需求，但存在区域性、结构性、学科性短缺问题。</p>
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<p>楚雄州基础教育教职工数总体需求下降平缓，学前教育教职工数从2023年的1.06万人减少至2035年的0.95万人左右。小学教育教职工数从2023年的0.77万人减少至2035年的0.69万人左右。</p>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="teacherTrendChart1"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="teacherTrendChart2"></canvas>
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</div>
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<h3>5. 学校占地面积需求</h3>
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<p>文山州基础教育学校占地面积总量需求增长放缓，各学段占地面积基本满足需求。</p>
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<p>楚雄州基础教育学校占地面积总量需求减少平缓，学前幼儿园占地面积从2023年的74.30万平方米减少至2035年的66.40万平方米。小学占地面积从2023年的186.5万平方米减少至2035年的166.6万平方米。</p>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="schoolAreaChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>结论与建议</h2>
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<div class="conclusion">
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<h3>主要结论</h3>
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<ol>
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<li>两州人口均呈现下降趋势，但城乡变化模式不同，城镇人口缓慢增长，乡村人口显著减少。</li>
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<li>学生数量整体呈下降趋势，特别是乡村地区下降明显，将对乡村学校布局调整产生影响。</li>
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<li>教职工需求总体下降，但存在结构性短缺问题，需要优化师资配置。</li>
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<li>学校占地面积需求增长放缓或减少，为优化教育资源配置提供了空间。</li>
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<li>城镇化进程加速，城区教育资源面临压力，需要提前规划。</li>
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</ol>
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<h3>政策建议</h3>
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<ol>
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<li>建立动态调整机制，根据人口变化趋势及时调整教育资源配置。</li>
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<li>优化城乡学校布局，乡村适当撤并小规模学校，城区适度扩大教育资源。</li>
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<li>加强教师队伍建设，解决结构性短缺问题，提高教师队伍质量。</li>
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<li>盘活现有教育资源，提高学校设施利用率，避免重复建设。</li>
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<li>加强教育信息化建设，通过技术手段弥补资源分布不均衡问题。</li>
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<li>建立跨部门协调机制，将教育规划与人口、城市规划统筹考虑。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</div>
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<script>
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// 图表1：总人口变化趋势图
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label: '文山州总人口(万人)',
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data: [345.4, 338.2, 331.0, 330.0, 329.5, 328.5, 329.5, 325.0, 315.0, 303.5],
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borderColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 1)',
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// 图表5：学生数量变化趋势图2（楚雄州）
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const studentTrend2Ctx = document.getElementById('studentTrendChart2').getContext('2d');
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const studentTrendChart2 = new Chart(studentTrend2Ctx, {
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type: 'line',
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data: {
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labels: ['2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
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{
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borderColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 1)',
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plugins: {
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title: {
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font: {
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}
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});
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// 图表6：学生数量对比图
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const studentComparisonCtx = document.getElementById('studentComparisonChart').getContext('2d');
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const studentComparisonChart = new Chart(studentComparisonCtx, {
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type: 'bar',
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data: {
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labels: ['学前教育', '小学教育', '初中教育', '高中教育'],
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datasets: [
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{
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label: '文山州2022年(万人)',
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data: [16.88, 36.45, 18.43, 8.94],
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backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.7)',
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borderColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 1)',
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{
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label: '楚雄州2022年(万人)',
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data: [7.85, 15.42, 7.89, 5.08],
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|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.7)',
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 1)',
|
|
|
borderWidth: 1
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州2035年预测(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [14.83, 32.02, 16.20, 7.86],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.7)',
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
|
|
|
borderWidth: 1
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2035年预测(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [6.64, 13.12, 6.74, 4.34],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 0.7)',
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 1)',
|
|
|
borderWidth: 1
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州与楚雄州各学段学生数量对比',
|
|
|
font: {
|
|
|
size: 16
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
legend: {
|
|
|
position: 'top'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: true,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '学生数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
x: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '教育阶段'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表7：教职工需求变化趋势图1（文山州）
|
|
|
const teacherTrend1Ctx = document.getElementById('teacherTrendChart1').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart1 = new Chart(teacherTrend1Ctx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2023', '2025', '2027', '2029', '2031', '2033', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州教职工需求(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [4.20, 4.10, 4.00, 3.90, 3.80, 3.70, 3.60],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.1)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州教职工需求变化趋势(2023-2035)',
|
|
|
font: {
|
|
|
size: 16
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
legend: {
|
|
|
position: 'top'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '教职工数(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
x: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '年份'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表8：教职工需求变化趋势图2（楚雄州）
|
|
|
const teacherTrend2Ctx = document.getElementById('teacherTrendChart2').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart2 = new Chart(teacherTrend2Ctx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2023', '2025', '2027', '2029', '2031', '2033', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州教职工需求(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [2.79, 2.70, 2.60, 2.55, 2.52, 2.50, 2.49],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.1)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '楚雄州教职工需求变化趋势(2023-2035)',
|
|
|
font: {
|
|
|
size: 16
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
legend: {
|
|
|
position: 'top'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '教职工数(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
x: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '年份'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表9：学校占地面积需求对比图
|
|
|
const schoolAreaCtx = document.getElementById('schoolAreaChart').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const schoolAreaChart = new Chart(schoolAreaCtx, {
|
|
|
type: 'bar',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['学前教育', '小学教育', '初中教育', '高中教育'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州占地面积需求(万平方米)',
|
|
|
data: [450, 1200, 800, 600],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.7)',
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 1)',
|
|
|
borderWidth: 1
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州占地面积需求(万平方米)',
|
|
|
data: [280, 650, 420, 350],
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.7)',
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 1)',
|
|
|
borderWidth: 1
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州与楚雄州学校占地面积需求对比',
|
|
|
font: {
|
|
|
size: 16
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
legend: {
|
|
|
position: 'top'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: true,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '占地面积(万平方米)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
x: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '教育阶段'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
</script>
|
|
|
</body>
|
|
|
</html>: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '人口数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
x: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '年份'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表2：城乡人口变化趋势图1（文山州）
|
|
|
const urbanRuralTrend1Ctx = document.getElementById('urbanRuralTrendChart1').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const urbanRuralTrendChart1 = new Chart(urbanRuralTrend1Ctx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2023', '2025', '2028', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州城镇人口(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [120.0, 125.0, 130.0, 135.0, 145.0],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州乡村人口(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [209.5, 200.0, 185.0, 175.0, 158.5],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州城乡人口变化趋势(2023-2035)',
|
|
|
font: {
|
|
|
size: 16
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
legend: {
|
|
|
position: 'top'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '人口数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
x: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '年份'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表3：城乡人口变化趋势图2（楚雄州）
|
|
|
const urbanRuralTrend2Ctx = document.getElementById('urbanRuralTrendChart2').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const urbanRuralTrendChart2 = new Chart(urbanRuralTrend2Ctx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2023', '2025', '2028', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州城镇人口(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [113.0, 115.2, 118.0, 120.0, 123.0],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州乡村人口(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [123.3, 115.0, 100.0, 90.0, 81.0],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(201, 203, 207, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(201, 203, 207, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '楚雄州城乡人口变化趋势(2023-2035)',
|
|
|
font: {
|
|
|
size: 16
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
legend: {
|
|
|
position: 'top'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '人口数量(万人)'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
x: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '年份'
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表4：学生数量变化趋势图1（文山州）
|
|
|
const studentTrend1Ctx = document.getElementById('studentTrendChart1').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
const studentTrendChart1 = new Chart(studentTrend1Ctx, {
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
labels: ['2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州学前在园幼儿(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [16.88, 15.50, 15.00, 14.83],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州小学生在校生(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [36.45, 34.50, 33.00, 32.02],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
label: '文山州初中在校生(万人)',
|
|
|
data: [18.43, 17.50, 16.80, 16.20],
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.2)',
|
|
|
tension: 0.3,
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
text: '文山州各学段学生数量变化趋势(2022-2035)',
|
|
|
font: {
|
|
|
size: 16
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
legend: {
|
|
|
position: 'top'
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
intersect |
