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<title>文山州与楚雄州人口变化趋势对基础教育的影响分析报告</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/chart.js"></script>
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.header {
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padding: 15px;
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</head>
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<body>
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<div class="header">
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<h1>文山州与楚雄州人口变化趋势对基础教育的影响分析报告</h1>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>报告摘要</h2>
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<p class="summary">本报告基于文山州与楚雄州2012-2022年人口数据及未来预测数据，分析两州人口变化趋势及其对基础教育资源配置的影响。报告显示两州人口均呈下降趋势，城乡人口结构变化显著，对教育资源配置提出新的挑战。</p>
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<p>报告通过9个关键图表展示了两州人口变化、城乡人口迁移、学生数量变化及教职工需求等核心指标，为教育资源配置决策提供数据支持。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>详细分析</h2>
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<h3>1. 总人口变化趋势</h3>
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<p>文山州2012-2022年总人口持续下降，年均增长率约-2.04%。2022年较2021年增长近1万人，其他年份基本保持每年减少约5000人。预测至2035年将减少41.9万人，年均增长率为-0.93%。</p>
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<p>楚雄州2012-2022年常住人口呈先增长后下降趋势，峰值出现在2019年达275.5万人。2020年大幅下降33.8万人，此后持续下降。预测2022-2035年将年均下降约2.54万人。</p>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="populationTrendChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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<h3>2. 城乡人口变化</h3>
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<p>文山州2023-2035年城镇人口缓慢增长，乡村人口显著减少，人口向州府所在地转移。</p>
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<p>楚雄州2012-2022年城乡常住人口波浪式下降，2019年峰值128.2万人。2020年拐点后城镇人口上升，2022年达111.08万人。预测2023-2035年城镇人口缓慢增长，乡村人口年均下降3.2万人。</p>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="urbanRuralTrendChart1"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="urbanRuralTrendChart2"></canvas>
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</div>
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<h3>3. 学生数量变化</h3>
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<p>文山州学前教育幼儿入园人数2035年预计降至5.72万，较2022年减少7900人。小学招生数2035年预计降至4.8万人，减少约0.68万人。</p>
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<p>楚雄州学前教育幼儿入园人数2035年预计2.57万人，减少0.33万人。小学招生数2035年预计2.01万人，减少约0.27万人。</p>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="studentTrendChart1"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="studentTrendChart2"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="studentComparisonChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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<h3>4. 教职工需求变化</h3>
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<p>文山州基础教育教职工数总体需求呈缓慢下降趋势，教职工的区域性、结构性、学科性短缺将长期存在。</p>
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<p>楚雄州基础教育教职工数总体需求下降平缓，学前教育教职工数从2023年1.06万人减少至2035年0.95万人。</p>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="teacherTrendChart1"></canvas>
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</div>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="teacherTrendChart2"></canvas>
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</div>
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<h3>5. 学校占地面积需求</h3>
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<p>文山州基础教育学校占地面积总量需求增长放缓，各学段占地面积基本满足需求。</p>
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<p>楚雄州基础教育学校占地面积总量需求减少平缓，学前幼儿园占地面积从2023年74.30万平方米减少至2035年66.40万平方米。</p>
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<div class="chart-container">
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<canvas id="schoolAreaChart"></canvas>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="section">
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<h2>结论与建议</h2>
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<div class="conclusion">
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<p>1. 两州人口均呈下降趋势，需根据人口变化动态调整教育资源配置。</p>
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<p>2. 城乡人口结构变化显著，城镇教育资源需求增加，乡村教育资源需优化整合。</p>
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<p>3. 学生数量下降趋势明显，应提前规划教师队伍结构调整，避免资源浪费。</p>
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<p>4. 教职工区域性、结构性短缺问题将长期存在，需加强教师队伍建设。</p>
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<p>5. 学校占地面积需求变化不大，未来应注重现有资源的优化利用而非新建扩建。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<script>
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// 图表1：总人口变化趋势图
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const populationTrendCtx = document.getElementById('populationTrendChart').getContext('2d');
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const populationTrendChart = new Chart(populationTrendCtx, {
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type: 'line',
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data: {
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labels: ['2012', '2015', '2018', '2019', '2020', '2021', '2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
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datasets: [
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{
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label: '文山州总人口(万人)',
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data: [345.4, 338.2, 331.0, 330.5, 329.5, 328.5, 329.5, 325.0, 315.0, 303.5],
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borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
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backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.2)',
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tension: 0.1,
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fill: true
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},
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{
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label: '楚雄州总人口(万人)',
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data: [273.0, 274.5, 275.0, 275.5, 241.7, 239.1, 237.2, 230.0, 220.0, 205.0],
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borderColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 1)',
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backgroundColor: 'rgba(153, 102, 255, 0.2)',
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tension: 0.1,
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fill: true
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}
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]
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},
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options: {
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responsive: true,
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plugins: {
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title: {
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display: true,
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text: '文山州与楚雄州总人口变化趋势(2012-2035)'
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},
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tooltip: {
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mode: 'index',
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intersect: false
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title: {
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display: true,
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text: '人口数量(万人)'
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}
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}
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}
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}
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});
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// 图表2：城乡人口变化趋势图1
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const urbanRuralTrendChart1Ctx = document.getElementById('urbanRuralTrendChart1').getContext('2d');
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const urbanRuralTrendChart1 = new Chart(urbanRuralTrendChart1Ctx, {
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type: 'line',
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data: {
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labels: ['2012', '2015', '2018', '2019', '2020', '2021', '2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
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datasets: [
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{
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label: '文山州城镇人口(万人)',
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data: [120.0, 125.0, 130.0, 132.0, 133.0, 134.0, 135.0, 140.0, 145.0, 150.0],
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borderColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 1)',
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backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.2)',
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tension: 0.1,
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fill: true
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},
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{
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label: '文山州乡村人口(万人)',
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data: [225.4, 213.2, 201.0, 198.5, 196.5, 194.5, 194.5, 185.0, 170.0, 153.5],
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borderColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 1)',
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backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.2)',
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title: {
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display: true,
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text: '文山州城乡人口变化趋势(2012-2035)'
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},
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tooltip: {
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mode: 'index',
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intersect: false
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title: {
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display: true,
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text: '人口数量(万人)'
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|
|
}
|
|
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|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
});
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
// 图表3：城乡人口变化趋势图2
|
|
|
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|
|
const urbanRuralTrendChart2Ctx = document.getElementById('urbanRuralTrendChart2').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
|
|
|
const urbanRuralTrendChart2 = new Chart(urbanRuralTrendChart2Ctx, {
|
|
|
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
labels: ['2012', '2015', '2018', '2019', '2020', '2021', '2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州城镇人口(万人)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
data: [110.0, 115.0, 120.0, 128.2, 108.3, 110.0, 111.08, 115.0, 120.0, 125.0],
|
|
|
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 1)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.2)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州乡村人口(万人)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
data: [163.0, 159.5, 155.0, 147.3, 133.4, 129.1, 126.1, 115.0, 100.0, 81.0],
|
|
|
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 1)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.2)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
|
|
|
text: '楚雄州城乡人口变化趋势(2012-2035)'
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
tooltip: {
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|
|
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
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|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
|
|
|
text: '人口数量(万人)'
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
// 图表4：学生数量变化趋势图1
|
|
|
|
|
|
const studentTrendChart1Ctx = document.getElementById('studentTrendChart1').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
|
|
|
const studentTrendChart1 = new Chart(studentTrendChart1Ctx, {
|
|
|
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
labels: ['2012', '2015', '2018', '2019', '2020', '2021', '2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
|
|
label: '文山州学前在园幼儿(万人)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
data: [12.0, 13.5, 15.0, 15.5, 16.0, 16.5, 16.88, 15.5, 14.5, 14.83],
|
|
|
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 1)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 0.2)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
|
|
label: '文山州小学在校生(万人)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
data: [30.0, 32.0, 34.0, 35.0, 35.5, 36.0, 36.45, 34.0, 33.0, 32.02],
|
|
|
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.2)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
|
|
|
text: '文山州学前与小学学生数量变化趋势(2012-2035)'
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
|
|
|
text: '学生数量(万人)'
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表5：学生数量变化趋势图2
|
|
|
|
|
|
const studentTrendChart2Ctx = document.getElementById('studentTrendChart2').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
|
|
|
const studentTrendChart2 = new Chart(studentTrendChart2Ctx, {
|
|
|
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
labels: ['2012', '2015', '2018', '2019', '2020', '2021', '2022', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州学前在园幼儿(万人)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
data: [6.0, 6.5, 7.0, 7.2, 7.3, 7.4, 7.50, 7.0, 6.8, 6.64],
|
|
|
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 1)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 0.2)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州小学在校生(万人)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
data: [16.0, 15.5, 15.0, 15.2, 15.0, 14.9, 14.83, 14.0, 13.5, 13.12],
|
|
|
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.2)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
|
|
|
text: '楚雄州学前与小学学生数量变化趋势(2012-2035)'
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
|
|
|
text: '学生数量(万人)'
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表6：学生数量对比图
|
|
|
|
|
|
const studentComparisonCtx = document.getElementById('studentComparisonChart').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
|
|
|
const studentComparisonChart = new Chart(studentComparisonCtx, {
|
|
|
|
|
|
type: 'bar',
|
|
|
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
labels: ['学前教育', '小学教育', '初中教育', '高中教育'],
|
|
|
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
|
|
label: '文山州2035年预测(万人)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
data: [14.83, 32.02, 16.2, 7.86],
|
|
|
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.7)'
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州2035年预测(万人)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
data: [6.64, 13.12, 6.74, 4.34],
|
|
|
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.7)'
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
|
|
|
text: '2035年两州各学段在校生数量预测对比'
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
beginAtZero: true,
|
|
|
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
|
|
|
text: '学生数量(万人)'
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表7：教职工需求变化趋势图1
|
|
|
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart1Ctx = document.getElementById('teacherTrendChart1').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart1 = new Chart(teacherTrendChart1Ctx, {
|
|
|
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
labels: ['2023', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
|
|
label: '文山州学前教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
data: [1.2, 1.15, 1.1, 1.05],
|
|
|
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 1)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 0.2)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
|
|
label: '文山州小学教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
data: [1.5, 1.45, 1.4, 1.35],
|
|
|
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.2)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
|
|
|
text: '文山州学前与小学教职工需求变化趋势(2023-2035)'
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
|
|
|
text: '教职工数量(万人)'
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
// 图表8：教职工需求变化趋势图2
|
|
|
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart2Ctx = document.getElementById('teacherTrendChart2').getContext('2d');
|
|
|
|
|
|
const teacherTrendChart2 = new Chart(teacherTrendChart2Ctx, {
|
|
|
|
|
|
type: 'line',
|
|
|
|
|
|
data: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
labels: ['2023', '2025', '2030', '2035'],
|
|
|
|
|
|
datasets: [
|
|
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州学前教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
data: [1.06, 1.02, 0.98, 0.95],
|
|
|
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 1)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 159, 64, 0.2)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
|
|
label: '楚雄州小学教职工(万人)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
data: [0.77, 0.74, 0.71, 0.69],
|
|
|
|
|
|
borderColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 1)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
backgroundColor: 'rgba(75, 192, 192, 0.2)',
|
|
|
|
|
|
tension: 0.1,
|
|
|
|
|
|
fill: true
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
options: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
responsive: true,
|
|
|
|
|
|
plugins: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
|
|
|
text: '楚雄州学前与小学教职工需求变化趋势(2023-2035)'
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
tooltip: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
mode: 'index',
|
|
|
|
|
|
intersect: false
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
|
|
scales: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
y: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
beginAtZero: false,
|
|
|
|
|
|
title: {
|
|
|
|
|
|
display: true,
|
|
|
|
|
|
text: '教职工数量(万人)'
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
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// 图表9：学校占地面积需求对比图
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const schoolAreaCtx = document.getElementById('schoolAreaChart').getContext('2d');
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const schoolAreaChart = new Chart(schoolAreaCtx, {
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type: 'bar',
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data: {
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labels: ['学前教育', '小学教育', '初中教育', '高中教育'],
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datasets: [
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{
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label: '文山州2023年(万平方米)',
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data: [80, 200, 120, 150],
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backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.7)'
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},
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{
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label: '文山州2035年预测(万平方米)',
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data: [75, 190, 115, 145],
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backgroundColor: 'rgba(54, 162, 235, 0.4)'
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},
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{
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label: '楚雄州2023年(万平方米)',
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data: [74.3, 186.5, 124.4, 166.6],
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backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.7)'
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},
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{
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label: '楚雄州2035年预测(万平方米)',
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data: [66.4, 166.6, 111.2, 143.2],
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backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 99, 132, 0.4)'
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}
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]
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},
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options: {
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responsive: true,
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plugins: {
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title: {
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display: true,
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text: '两州各学段学校占地面积需求对比(2023 vs 2035)'
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},
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tooltip: {
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mode: 'index',
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intersect: false
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}
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},
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scales: {
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y: {
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beginAtZero: true,
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title: {
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display: true,
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text: '占地面积(万平方米)'
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}
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}
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}
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}
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});
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</script>
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</body>
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</html>
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